西华师范大学学报(自然科学版)

在全球气候变化日益加剧的背景下，识别各地区新质生产力对碳排放强度的影响差异，对我国经济发展模式实现绿色低碳转型具有重要意义。为研究新质生产力对碳排放强度的影响效应及时空分异特征，基于2011—2022年中国省级面板数据，构建涵盖技术创新、产业发展和要素结构的新质生产力综合评价指标体系，采用熵权法测算省域新质生产力水平，运用空间自相关分析碳排放强度的空间分布特征，并进一步通过时空地理加权回归模型实证检验新质生产力对碳排放强度的影响。结果表明：我国各地区新质生产力水平整体持续提升，并呈现东强、中稳、西北相对滞后的空间梯度格局；碳排放强度存在显著的空间集聚特征，但空间正相关程度呈下降趋势。新质生产力及其分项指标(技术创新、产业发展、要素结构)均对碳排放强度具有显著抑制效应，且在时间和空间上表现出明显的异质性。时间上，新质生产力整体对碳排放的抑制效应持续增强，技术创新表现出稳定且持续的负向抑制作用，产业发展的抑制力度不断加大，而各省要素结构的抑制效应差距则呈逐步扩大的趋势。空间上，东南沿海地区抑制作用强，而中西部地区呈递减态势。最后，从促进低碳技术创新与推广、重点发展战略性新兴产业和绿色未来产业、引导要素向绿色发展领域集聚等方面提出政策建议，以进一步加强新质生产力对碳排放强度的抑制作用。

Against the backdrop of increasingly intensified global climate change, identifying the regional differences in the impact of new quality productive forces on carbon emission intensity is of great significance for promoting a green and low-carbon transformation of China's economic development model.To examine the impact effects of new quality productive forces on carbon emission intensity and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity characteristics, this study constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system encompassing technological innovation, industrial development, and factor structure, based on provincial panel data for China from 2011 to 2022.The entropy weight method was applied to measure provincial levels of new quality productive forces.Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emission intensity, and a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR) model was further employed to empirically assess the spatio-temporal effects of new quality productive forces on carbon emission intensity.The results indicate that the overall level of new quality productive forces has continuously improved across China, forming a spatial gradient pattern characterized by strong performance in the East, stable development in the central region, and relative lag in the Northwest.Carbon emission intensity exhibits significant spatial clustering, although its degree of positive spatial correlation shows a declining trend.New quality productive forces and their sub-indicators(technological innovation, industrial development, factor structure) all exert significant inhibitory effects on carbon emission intensity, displaying notable temporal and spatial heterogeneity.Temporally, the overall inhibitory effect of new quality productive forces on carbon emissions continues to strengthen, with technological innovation exhibiting a stable and persistent negative effect, industrial development showing an increasingly strong suppressive impact, and provincial disparities in the inhibitory effect of factor structure gradually widening.Spatially, the southeastern coastal region demonstrates the strongest suppression effect, while the effect weakens across the central and western regions.Finally, policy recommendations are proposed from the perspectives of promoting low-carbon technological innovation and diffusion, prioritizing the development of strategic emerging industries and green future industries, and guiding factors to cluster in green development fields, so as to further enhance the inhibitory effect of new quality productive forces on carbon emission intensity.