西华师范大学学报(自然科学版)

大相岭大熊猫现仅有荥河与瓦屋山两个种群,彼此隔离,数量稀少,处于极度濒危境地.本文运用VORTEX模型对大相岭大熊猫未来动态进行了探讨,结果表明在没有近亲繁殖、灾害等的影响下,种群决定性增长率r>0,显示种群有增长的潜在趋势.但由于统计随机性及环境波动等影响,大相岭大熊猫种群平均统计增长率r<0,种群将逐渐走向灭绝.荥河种群和瓦屋山种群的平均绝灭时间分别为48a和33a.竹子开花、近亲繁殖等均对种群有明显影响.为保护该地大熊猫,采取有效保护措施刻不容缓.

In the Daxiangling Mountains, there are two isolated giant panda populations, the Wawushan Population and the Yinghe Population,which have lost contact with each other and have been separated from outer panda populations in the other mountain ranges. Owing to too small population numbers, both panda populations are on the verge of extinction. According to the relevant principles in population viability analysis, Vortex software (version 8.21) is used to model the development of the two populations in future 100 years, and the factors, which maybe result in the decline or extinction of the two populations, are analyzed, too. Without inbreeding depression and catastrophes as well, the deterministic population growth rate is above zero, which implies a potential positive increase in the two populations. However, both populations will gradually go into extinction because of stochastic population processes and environmental variation and so on. The averge time of the first extinction is 33 years later from now on for the Wawushan Population, and 48 years later for the Yinghe Population. Many factors, especially inbreeding depression, have a significant influence upon the future fates of the two populations. For the long-term persistence of the giant pandas in the Daxiangling Mountains, some major conservation strategies are recommended in the future based on our results. 